Džiugas Telšiai 0–2 FK Zalgiris Vilnius

Džiugas Telšiai

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

M. Milićković 90+2'

P. Mamić 49'

4/23/2023

A Lyga · Round 10Telšių dirbtinės dangos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Džiugas Telšiai22%

×Draw24%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Džiugas TelšiaiExpected goals in this matchFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.67

Džiugas Telšiai

0.96

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

1.67

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 74% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 133 away

1.07

creates per match

1.93

1.41

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Džiugas Telšiai

1.07

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

1.93

allows per match

Džiugas Telšiai

1.41

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Džiugas Telšiai ↓

FK Zalgiris Vilnius →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Džiugas Telšiai or draw

46%

Džiugas Telšiai or FK Zalgiris Vilnius

76%

Draw or FK Zalgiris Vilnius

78%

Winning margin

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+

7%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals

62%

Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals

25%

Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals

7%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals

81%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals

50%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)

29%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Džiugas Telšiai at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius away — creates 1.93, concedes 0.84 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.07 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.96

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 1.93 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Džiugas Telšiai scores more

22%

level

24%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more

54%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

33'

37'

41'

49'

62'

64'

67'

Pereira Nuno

69'

P. Golubickas← A. Fofana

69'

R. Jansonas← Á. Vilhjálmsson

78'

Vinícius Ribeiro← Jardeu

90+2'

T. Rapalavicius

90+1'

D. Šluta← Nuno Pereira

90+1'

J. Lubas← Aires Sousa

90+1'

D. Kazlauskas← M. Oyewusi

90+1'

M. Milićković← O. Verbickas

90+2'

M. Milićković

Džiugas

FK

1

Gertmonas

31

Vučur

3

Pavelić

12

⚽

Mamić

4

Kažukolov

2

▼

Fofana

71

Kendysh

22

▼

Verbickas

8

Karashima

77

▼

Vilhjálms

99

▼

1

13

4

20

33

10

8

▼

Pereira

76

▼

Sousa

24

Burba

99

▼

Jardeu

88

Krivokapi

Manager: João Prates

78'▲Vinícius Ribeiro←▼Jardeu

90+1'▲D. Šluta←▼Nuno Pereira

90+1'▲J. Lubas←▼Aires Sousa

Džiugas Telšiai substitutes

11Ribeiro27Šluta9Lubas2Mantinis6Candé22Mantinis23Jankauskas36Sarpong94Paschoa

Manager: V. Cheburin

69'▲P. Golubickas←▼A. Fofana

69'▲R. Jansonas←▼Á. Vilhjálmsson

90+1'▲D. Kazlauskas←▼M. Oyewusi

90+1'▲M. Milićković←▼O. Verbickas

FK Zalgiris Vilnius substitutes

10Golubickas23Jansonas9Kazlauskas33Milićković5Gorobsov7Bopesu11Vaca13Mikoliūnas25Duka26Hnid28Petkevičius

Match Recap: Džiugas Telšiai vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius

FK Zalgiris Vilnius beat Džiugas Telšiai 2-0 in A Lyga on April 23, 2023.

Goals: P. Mamić (49'), M. Milićković (90+2').

The match was played at Telšių dirbtinės dangos stadionas in Telšiai.

Džiugas Telšiai vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius — A Lyga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Džiugas Telšiai vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius