Džiugas Telšiai 0–0 Banga: Result & Stats | A Lyga

Džiugas Telšiai

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Banga

4/26/2022

A Lyga · Round 10Telšių dirbtinės dangos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Džiugas Telšiai38%

×Draw28%

Banga34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Džiugas TelšiaiExpected goals in this matchBanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.13

Džiugas Telšiai

1.20

Banga

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 110 away

1.07

creates per match

0.87

1.39

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Džiugas Telšiai

1.07

Banga

0.87

allows per match

Džiugas Telšiai

1.39

Banga

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Banga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Džiugas Telšiai ↓

Banga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Džiugas Telšiai or draw

66%

Džiugas Telšiai or Banga

72%

Draw or Banga

62%

Winning margin

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+

16%

Banga wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals

70%

Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals

34%

Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals

12%

Banga 1+ goals

68%

Banga 2+ goals

31%

Banga 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)

52%

Banga (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Džiugas Telšiai at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.39 · 104 matches

Banga away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.32 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.07 + Banga defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.20

Banga attack 0.87 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Džiugas Telšiai scores more

38%

level

28%

Banga scores more

34%

Džiugas Telšiai at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Džiugas Telšiai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

L. Ankudinovas

48'

R. Krusnauskas

60'

A. Lipskis← M. Vasiliauskas

60'

Ivo Braz← R. Krušnauskas

68'

R. Vėževičius← Gabriel Brilhante

71'

Pericles

78'

M. Pyrogov← Péricles

78'

P. Srebalius← V. Antužis

Džiugas

Banga

1

Smilingis

5

Vieira

19

▼

21

7

95

11

14

79

6

▼

8

1

53

36

33

24

7

▼

Vasiliaus

27

Šluta

22

▼

Péricles

8

Koike

11

Eduardo

17

▼

Krušnausk

Manager: M. Šluta

60'▲A. Lipskis←▼M. Vasiliauskas

60'▲Ivo Braz←▼R. Krušnauskas

78'▲M. Pyrogov←▼Péricles

Džiugas Telšiai substitutes

9Lipskis10Braz23Pyrogov4Mika13Rapalavičius16Pilipavičius20Emsis31Paukštė19Djembe

Manager: David Afonso

68'▲R. Vėževičius←▼Gabriel Brilhante

78'▲P. Srebalius←▼V. Antužis

Banga substitutes

32Vėževičius18Srebalius4Vainikaitis12Survila15Gailius17Birgiola20Toleikis27Kerpė55Bertašius

A Lyga: Džiugas Telšiai 0–0 Banga

Džiugas Telšiai and Banga drew 0-0 in A Lyga on April 26, 2022.

The match was played at Telšių dirbtinės dangos stadionas in Telšiai.

Džiugas Telšiai vs Banga — A Lyga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

A Lyga: Džiugas Telšiai 0–0 Banga