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Džiugas Telšiai vs Banga — 1 Lyga 2026

Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
FT
2 – 1
Banga
Banga
4/20/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 5Telšių dirbtinės dangos stadionas (Telšiai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Džiugas Telšiai40%
×Draw25%
Banga35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Džiugas Telšiai
1.52
Banga
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 17 away

creates per match

Džiugas Telšiai
2.04
Banga
1.94

allows per match

Džiugas Telšiai
0.88
Banga
1.00

finishing

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par
Banga+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Džiugas Telšiai ↓

Banga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Džiugas Telšiai or draw
65%
Džiugas Telšiai or Banga
75%
Draw or Banga
60%

Winning margin

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+
20%
Banga wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals
78%
Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals
45%
Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals
20%
Banga 1+ goals
76%
Banga 2+ goals
41%
Banga 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)
53%
Banga (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Džiugas Telšiai at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

Banga away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Džiugas Telšiai attack 2.04 + Banga defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.52

Banga attack 1.94 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Džiugas Telšiai scores more
40%
level
25%
Banga scores more
35%

Džiugas Telšiai at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Džiugas Telšiai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Džiugas Telšiai 2–1 Banga

Džiugas Telšiai beat Banga 2-1 in 1 Lyga on April 20, 2019.

The match was played at Telšių dirbtinės dangos stadionas (Telšiai).