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Dynamo vs FC Krasnodar — Premier League 2025

Dynamo
Dynamo
Preview
16:00
FC Krasnodar
FC Krasnodar
11/21/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15VTB Arena
Big match
39%
Dynamo
model favours
39%24%37%

Dynamo score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dynamo39%
×Draw24%
FC Krasnodar37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo
1.53
FC Krasnodar
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 24 away

creates per match

Dynamo
2.18
FC Krasnodar
1.63

allows per match

Dynamo
1.36
FC Krasnodar
0.88

finishing

Dynamo+0.00on par
FC Krasnodar+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo ↓

FC Krasnodar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dynamo or draw
63%
Dynamo or FC Krasnodar
76%
Draw or FC Krasnodar
61%

Winning margin

Dynamo wins by 2+
19%
FC Krasnodar wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Dynamo 1+ goals
78%
Dynamo 2+ goals
45%
Dynamo 3+ goals
20%
FC Krasnodar 1+ goals
78%
FC Krasnodar 2+ goals
44%
FC Krasnodar 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Dynamo (draw refunded)
51%
FC Krasnodar (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.36 · 28 matches

FC Krasnodar away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo attack 2.18 + FC Krasnodar defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.53

FC Krasnodar attack 1.63 + Dynamo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dynamo scores more
39%
level
24%
FC Krasnodar scores more
37%

Dynamo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Dynamo have won 3 in a row
  • When FC Krasnodar score first, they win 88% of the time
  • Dynamo win just 21% against the top half (vs 56% against the bottom)
  • FC Krasnodar win just 36% against the top half (vs 94% against the bottom)
  • 25% of FC Krasnodar’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
  • Their last 7 meetings averaged just 1.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Dynamo
Balanced
FC Krasnodar
Possession-dominant
56%Possession60%
79%Pass accuracy79%
17.9ShotsBiggest gap15.6
—xG1.87
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
DynamoFC Krasnodar

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

2
Dynamo
3
Draws
2
FC Krasnodar
Avg goals: 1.3BTTS: 14%
2–10–00–01–00–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Dynamo
WWW
Krasnodar
DWDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dynamo vs FC Krasnodar — Match Preview

Dynamo face FC Krasnodar on November 21, 2026 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dynamo host FC Krasnodar at VTB Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.