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Dynamo vs FC Krasnodar — Cup 2025

Dynamo
Dynamo
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
FC Krasnodar
FC Krasnodar
E. Spertsyan 88'
K. Mukailov 44', 19'
G. Furtado 35'
8/13/2025CupCup · Group Stage - 2VTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dynamo37%
×Draw23%
FC Krasnodar40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo
1.57
FC Krasnodar
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Dynamo
1.71
FC Krasnodar
2.00

allows per match

Dynamo
1.29
FC Krasnodar
1.43

finishing

Dynamo+0.00on par
FC Krasnodar+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo ↓

FC Krasnodar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dynamo or draw
60%
Dynamo or FC Krasnodar
77%
Draw or FC Krasnodar
63%

Winning margin

Dynamo wins by 2+
18%
FC Krasnodar wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Dynamo 1+ goals
79%
Dynamo 2+ goals
46%
Dynamo 3+ goals
21%
FC Krasnodar 1+ goals
81%
FC Krasnodar 2+ goals
49%
FC Krasnodar 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Dynamo (draw refunded)
48%
FC Krasnodar (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

FC Krasnodar away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo attack 1.71 + FC Krasnodar defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.57

FC Krasnodar attack 2.00 + Dynamo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dynamo scores more
37%
level
23%
FC Krasnodar scores more
40%

FC Krasnodar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Krasnodar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
K. Mukailov↳ N. Krivtsov
35'
G. Furtado↳ D. Kozlov
44'
K. Mukailov
46'
N. Marichal← M. Osipenko
46'
D. Fomin← L. Gagnidze
46'
N. Moumi Ngamaleu← E. Smelov
46'
I. Sergeev← D. Bokov
59'
D. Makarov← Bitello
59'
Victor Sa← Joao Batxi
67'
Douglas Augusto← K. Mukailov
67'
E. Spertsyan← D. Kozlov
72'
G. Perrin← G. Furtado
88'
Nikita Krivtsov
88'
E. Spertsyan↳ N. Krivtsov
90'
Jubal

Statistics

DynamoFC
Discipline
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Cup: Dynamo 0–4 FC Krasnodar

FC Krasnodar beat Dynamo 4-0 in Cup on August 13, 2025.

Goals: K. Mukailov (19', 44'), G. Furtado (35'), E. Spertsyan (88').

The match was played at VTB Arena in Moscow.