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Dynamo Unacob vs AS Sobemap — Championnat National 2019

Dynamo Unacob
Dynamo Unacob
PST
15:00
AS Sobemap
AS Sobemap
4/26/2020Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 24Stade Municipal de Parakou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Dynamo Unacob36%
×Draw33%
AS Sobemap32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Unacob
0.95
AS Sobemap
0.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 108 away

creates per match

Dynamo Unacob
0.92
AS Sobemap
0.94

allows per match

Dynamo Unacob
0.81
AS Sobemap
0.98

finishing

Dynamo Unacob+0.00on par
AS Sobemap+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Unacob ↓

AS Sobemap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Dynamo Unacob or draw
68%
Dynamo Unacob or AS Sobemap
67%
Draw or AS Sobemap
64%

Winning margin

Dynamo Unacob wins by 2+
13%
AS Sobemap wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dynamo Unacob 1+ goals
61%
Dynamo Unacob 2+ goals
25%
Dynamo Unacob 3+ goals
7%
AS Sobemap 1+ goals
59%
AS Sobemap 2+ goals
22%
AS Sobemap 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Unacob (draw refunded)
53%
AS Sobemap (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Unacob at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.81 · 85 matches

AS Sobemap away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.98 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Unacob attack 0.92 + AS Sobemap defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.95

AS Sobemap attack 0.94 + Dynamo Unacob defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Dynamo Unacob scores more
36%
level
33%
AS Sobemap scores more
32%

Dynamo Unacob at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Dynamo Unacob will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dynamo Unacob vs AS Sobemap — Match Preview

Dynamo Unacob face AS Sobemap on April 26, 2020 in this Championnat National fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dynamo Unacob host AS Sobemap at Stade Municipal de Parakou.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.