Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dynamo Kyiv vs Zorya Luhansk — Premier League 2019

Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
3/12/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv60%
×Draw20%
Zorya Luhansk20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Kyiv
2.15
Zorya Luhansk
1.15

Dynamo Kyiv creates 87% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv
2.44
Zorya Luhansk
1.44

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv
0.86
Zorya Luhansk
1.86

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv-0.64scores less
Zorya Luhansk+0.10scores more

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Zorya Luhansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw
80%
Dynamo Kyiv or Zorya Luhansk
80%
Draw or Zorya Luhansk
40%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
37%
Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
88%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
63%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
36%
Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
68%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
32%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
75%
Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.86 · 5 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.86 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.44 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.15

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.44 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more
60%
level
20%
Zorya Luhansk scores more
20%

Dynamo Kyiv at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dynamo Kyiv vs Zorya Luhansk

Dynamo Kyiv beat Zorya Luhansk 2-0 in Premier League on March 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi in Kiev.