Dynamo Kyiv 0–1 Zorya Luhansk: Result & Stats

Dynamo Kyiv

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Zorya Luhansk

E. Guerrero 83'

3/18/2023

Premier League · Round 18Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv60%

×Draw21%

Zorya Luhansk20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo KyivExpected goals in this matchZorya Luhansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.09

Dynamo Kyiv

2.06

Zorya Luhansk

1.09

Dynamo Kyiv creates 89% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

2.27

creates per match

1.44

0.75

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv

2.27

Zorya Luhansk

1.44

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv

0.75

Zorya Luhansk

1.86

-0.56scores less than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv-0.56scores less

Zorya Luhansk+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Zorya Luhansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw

80%

Dynamo Kyiv or Zorya Luhansk

79%

Draw or Zorya Luhansk

40%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

36%

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

87%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

61%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

34%

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals

66%

Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals

30%

Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

75%

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.75 · 7 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.86 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.27 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.06

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.44 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

60%

level

21%

Zorya Luhansk scores more

20%

Dynamo Kyiv at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

30'

31'

40'

57'

N. Voloshyn← D. Garmash

57'

V. Shepelev← V. Kabaev

57'

K. Parris← A. Tsarenko

64'

V. Pogorilyi← N. Rusyn

70'

76'

76'

77'

78'

83'

90'

R. Vantukh← E. Guerrero

90'

P. Polehenko← K. Dryshlyuk

Shots

Statistics

DynamoZorya

Overview

6Total Shots7

4Corners0

12Fouls17

Shots

6Total Shots7

3On Target3

3Off Target4

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls17

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0

1Offsides4

Match Recap: Dynamo Kyiv vs Zorya Luhansk

Zorya Luhansk beat Dynamo Kyiv 1-0 in Premier League on March 18, 2023.

Goals: E. Guerrero (83').

The match was played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky in Kiev.

Dynamo Kyiv vs Zorya Luhansk — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Dynamo Kyiv vs Zorya Luhansk