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Dynamo Kyiv vs Veres Rivne — Premier League 2026

Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Veres Rivne
Veres Rivne
V. Shepeliev 84'
M. Ponomarenko 80'
A. Yarmolenko 40'
5/1/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv61%
×Draw21%
Veres Rivne17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Kyiv
1.99
Veres Rivne
0.95

Dynamo Kyiv creates 109% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv
2.39
Veres Rivne
1.17

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv
0.74
Veres Rivne
1.59

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv-0.39scores less
Veres Rivne-0.44scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Veres Rivne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw
83%
Dynamo Kyiv or Veres Rivne
79%
Draw or Veres Rivne
39%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
37%
Veres Rivne wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
86%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
59%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
32%
Veres Rivne 1+ goals
61%
Veres Rivne 2+ goals
25%
Veres Rivne 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
78%
Veres Rivne (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.74 · 6 matches

Veres Rivne away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.59 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.39 + Veres Rivne defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.99

Veres Rivne attack 1.17 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more
61%
level
21%
Veres Rivne scores more
17%

Dynamo Kyiv at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
D. PopovDynamo KyivDynamo Kyiv · D
8.2

Match Events

40'
A. Yarmolenko
46'
O. Syrota← T. Mykhavko
46'
V. Dakhnovskyi← D. Shastal
65'
V. Shepeliev← A. Yarmolenko
67'
V. Kucherov← D. Kliots
67'
O. Kucherenko← A. Kukharuk
70'
M. Shestakov← V. Sharai
73'
Vladyslav Vanat
75'
Oleksandr Kucherenko
75'
M. Ponomarenko← V. Vanat
79'
D. Svitiukha← M. Haiduchyk
80'
M. Ponomarenko↳ N. Voloshyn
84'
V. Shepeliev↳ N. Voloshyn
86'
Benito← V. Kabaiev
86'
A. Tsarenko← V. Buialskyi

Possession

63%Dynamo

Shots

17Dynamo

Pass accuracy

53%Dynamo

Statistics

DynamoVeres
Overview
63%Possession37%
17Total Shots6
2.15Expected Goals (xG)0.13
4Corners6
11Fouls11
Shots
17Total Shots6
6On Target2
5Off Target2
6Blocked2
7Inside Box0
10Outside Box6
Passing
63%Possession37%
544Total Passes290
486Accurate Passes232
89%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
1Offsides0

Premier League: Dynamo Kyiv 3–0 Veres Rivne

Dynamo Kyiv beat Veres Rivne 3-0 in Premier League on May 1, 2024.

Goals: A. Yarmolenko (40'), M. Ponomarenko (80'), V. Shepeliev (84').

Dynamo Kyiv controlled possession (63%) and registered 17 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi in Kiev.