Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dynamo Kyiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk — Premier League 2019

Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk
11/3/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv42%
×Draw24%
Shakhtar Donetsk35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Kyiv
1.66
Shakhtar Donetsk
1.49

Dynamo Kyiv creates 11% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv
2.44
Shakhtar Donetsk
2.12

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv
0.86
Shakhtar Donetsk
0.88

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv-0.64scores less
Shakhtar Donetsk+0.13scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Shakhtar Donetsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw
65%
Dynamo Kyiv or Shakhtar Donetsk
76%
Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk
58%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
21%
Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
81%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
49%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
23%
Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals
77%
Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals
44%
Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
55%
Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.86 · 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away — creates 2.12, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.44 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.66

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 2.12 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more
42%
level
24%
Shakhtar Donetsk scores more
35%

Dynamo Kyiv at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Dynamo Kyiv 0–1 Shakhtar Donetsk

Shakhtar Donetsk beat Dynamo Kyiv 1-0 in Premier League on November 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi in Kiev.