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Dynamo Kyiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk — Premier League 2026

Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk
C. De Pena 67'
B. Verbic 51'
Alan Patrick 72'
E. Konoplyanka 39'
T. Stepanenko 31'
7/4/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Championship Round - 7Olimpiysky National Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv41%
×Draw24%
Shakhtar Donetsk35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Kyiv
1.57
Shakhtar Donetsk
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv
2.27
Shakhtar Donetsk
2.12

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv
0.75
Shakhtar Donetsk
0.88

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv-0.56scores less
Shakhtar Donetsk+0.13scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Shakhtar Donetsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw
65%
Dynamo Kyiv or Shakhtar Donetsk
76%
Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk
59%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
20%
Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
79%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
46%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
21%
Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals
76%
Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals
42%
Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
54%
Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.75 · 7 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away — creates 2.12, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.27 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.57

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 2.12 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more
41%
level
24%
Shakhtar Donetsk scores more
35%

Dynamo Kyiv at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
M. Solomon
31'
T. Stepanenko
39'
E. Konoplyanka↳ M. Solomon
42'
S. Bolbat
46'
N. Rusyn← C. De Pena
51'
B. Verbic
54'
S. Bolbat← M. Cipriano
61'
T. Stepanenko
63'
A. Kadiri Mohammed
67'
C. De Pena
71'
M. Solomon← Taison
72'
Alan Patrick↳ Taison
77'
E. Konoplyanka← Marlos
77'
T. Stepanenko← A. Bondarenko
77'
J. Moraes← Fernando
84'
V. Buyalskyy← I. Kargbo
90+1'
J. Pivaric

Possession

47%Dynamo

Shots

7Dynamo

Statistics

DynamoShakhtar
Overview
47%Possession53%
7Total Shots10
5Corners7
18Fouls13
Shots
7Total Shots10
3On Target6
4Off Target4
Passing
47%Possession53%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
18Fouls13
1Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
6Offsides1

Premier League: Dynamo Kyiv 2–3 Shakhtar Donetsk

Shakhtar Donetsk beat Dynamo Kyiv 3-2 in Premier League on July 4, 2020.

Goals: T. Stepanenko (31'), E. Konoplyanka (39'), B. Verbic (51'), C. De Pena (67'), Alan Patrick (72').

Shakhtar Donetsk controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 7.

The match was played at Olimpiysky National Sports Complex in Kyiv.