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Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria — Premier League 2026

Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Oleksandria
Oleksandria
V. Buialskyi 90+3'
V. Brazhko 83', 15'
V. Vanat 44'
D. Skorko 47'
Geovani 42'
10/1/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv63%
×Draw21%
Oleksandria16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Kyiv
1.98
Oleksandria
0.88

Dynamo Kyiv creates 125% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv
2.44
Oleksandria
0.90

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv
0.86
Oleksandria
1.51

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv-0.64scores less
Oleksandria-0.27scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Oleksandria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw
84%
Dynamo Kyiv or Oleksandria
79%
Draw or Oleksandria
37%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
38%
Oleksandria wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
86%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
59%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
31%
Oleksandria 1+ goals
59%
Oleksandria 2+ goals
22%
Oleksandria 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
80%
Oleksandria (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.86 · 5 matches

Oleksandria away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.51 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.44 + Oleksandria defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.98

Oleksandria attack 0.90 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more
63%
level
21%
Oleksandria scores more
16%

Dynamo Kyiv at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
Kyrylo Siheyev
15'
V. Brazhko↳ O. Karavaiev
23'
D. Shostak← J. Hernández
42'
Geovani
44'
V. Vanat↳ A. Yarmolenko
47'
D. Skorko
49'
Nazar Voloshyn
51'
Danil Skorko
62'
A. Mykytyshyn← A. Shulianskyi
62'
Juan Alvina← Geovani
65'
Denys Shostak
71'
Vladyslav Kalitvintsev
71'
V. Kabaiev← N. Voloshyn
71'
V. Shepeliev← O. Andriievskyi
76'
A. Andreichuk← K. Kovalets
76'
D. Harkavenko← D. Skorko
83'
V. Brazhko↳ V. Vanat
84'
O. Tymchyk← O. Karavaiev
90+3'
V. Buialskyi↳ V. Kabaiev

Possession

54%Dynamo

Shots

14Dynamo

Statistics

DynamoOleksandria
Overview
54%Possession46%
14Total Shots8
10Corners1
7Fouls10
Shots
14Total Shots8
7On Target4
5Off Target3
2Blocked1
Passing
54%Possession46%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls10
3Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria

Dynamo Kyiv beat Oleksandria 4-2 in Premier League on October 1, 2023.

Goals: V. Brazhko (15', 83'), Geovani (42'), V. Vanat (44'), D. Skorko (47'), V. Buialskyi (90+3').

Dynamo Kyiv controlled possession (54%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi in Kiev.