Dynamo Kyiv 1–0 Oleksandria: Result & Stats

Dynamo Kyiv

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Oleksandria

V. Tsygankov 90+7' (pen)

9/18/2021

Premier League · Round 8NSK Olimpijs'kyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv62%

×Draw22%

Oleksandria16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo KyivExpected goals in this matchOleksandria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.82

Dynamo Kyiv

1.89

Oleksandria

0.82

Dynamo Kyiv creates 130% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

2.27

creates per match

0.90

0.75

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv

2.27

Oleksandria

0.90

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv

0.75

Oleksandria

1.51

-0.56scores less than expected

finishing

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv-0.56scores less

Oleksandria-0.27scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Oleksandria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw

84%

Dynamo Kyiv or Oleksandria

78%

Draw or Oleksandria

38%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

37%

Oleksandria wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

85%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

56%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

29%

Oleksandria 1+ goals

56%

Oleksandria 2+ goals

20%

Oleksandria 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

80%

Oleksandria (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.75 · 7 matches

Oleksandria away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.51 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.27 + Oleksandria defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.89

Oleksandria attack 0.90 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

62%

level

22%

Oleksandria scores more

16%

Dynamo Kyiv at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

Kyrylo Kovalets

43'

Vitaliy Buyalskyi

46'

D. Harmash← I. Shkurin

58'

Tomasz Kędziora

63'

I. Kyryukhantsev← V. Odaryuk

63'

C. Spinelli← S. Gryn

67'

Sergiy Sydorchuk

68'

Vitinho← C. de Pena

68'

O. Karavaev← T. Kędziora

70'

S. Rybalka← K. Dryshlyuk

76'

Claudio Spinelli

77'

V. Shepelev← S. Sydorchuk

78'

Kaspars Dubra

87'

Oleksandr Andriyevskiy

90+10'

B. Lednev← V. Buyalskyi

90+1'

T. Stetskov← M. Tretyakov

90+7'

V. TsygankovPenalty

Possession

Shots

Statistics

DynamoOleksandria

Overview

54%Possession46%

14Total Shots5

8Corners2

15Fouls17

Shots

14Total Shots5

7On Target0

7Off Target5

Passing

54%Possession46%

Discipline

15Fouls17

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1