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Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria — Premier League 2026

Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Oleksandria
Oleksandria
D. Popov 1'
10/24/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7NSK Olimpijs'kyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv62%
×Draw22%
Oleksandria16%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Kyiv
1.89
Oleksandria
0.82

Dynamo Kyiv creates 130% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv
2.27
Oleksandria
0.90

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv
0.75
Oleksandria
1.51

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv-0.56scores less
Oleksandria-0.27scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Oleksandria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw
84%
Dynamo Kyiv or Oleksandria
78%
Draw or Oleksandria
38%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
37%
Oleksandria wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
85%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
56%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
29%
Oleksandria 1+ goals
56%
Oleksandria 2+ goals
20%
Oleksandria 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
80%
Oleksandria (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.75 · 7 matches

Oleksandria away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.51 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.27 + Oleksandria defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.89

Oleksandria attack 0.90 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more
62%
level
22%
Oleksandria scores more
16%

Dynamo Kyiv at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
D. Popov↳ V. Mykolenko
21'
Carlos De Pena
33'
Gerson Rodrigues
43'
Tomasz Kędziora
46'
V. Supryaha← G. Rodrigues
46'
M. Shaparenko← D. Harmash
46'
T. Stetskov← M. Zaderaka
48'
Vasyl Grytsuk
51'
Denys Popov
54'
D. Grechyshkin← V. Grytsuk
57'
Timur Stetskov
69'
B. Verbič← C. de Pena
69'
O. Karavaev← T. Kędziora
71'
D. Bezborodko← M. Tretyakov
78'
Oleksandr Melnyk
79'
A. Globa← B. Myshenko
80'
K. Kovalets← M. Dudka
82'
Sergiy Sydorchuk
83'
V. Shepelev← V. Buyalskyi
90'
Mykola Shaparenko
90'
Valeriy Bondarenko

Shots

6Dynamo

Statistics

DynamoOleksandria
Overview
6Total Shots1
6Corners2
8Fouls13
Shots
6Total Shots1
4On Target1
2Off Target0
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls13
5Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards0
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria

Dynamo Kyiv beat Oleksandria 1-0 in Premier League on October 24, 2020.

Goals: D. Popov (1').

The match was played at NSK Olimpijs'kyj in Kiev.