Dynamo Kyiv 3–1 Hirnyk: Result & Stats

Dynamo Kyiv

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Hirnyk

V. Buyalskyi 59', 22'

V. Vanat 20'

R. Debelko 45+2'

10/30/2022

Premier League · Round 10Arena L'viv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv62%

×Draw21%

Hirnyk17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo KyivExpected goals in this matchHirnyk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.90

Dynamo Kyiv

1.96

Hirnyk

0.90

Dynamo Kyiv creates 118% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

2.44

creates per match

0.94

0.86

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv

2.44

Hirnyk

0.94

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv

0.86

Hirnyk

1.47

-0.64scores less than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv-0.64scores less

Hirnyk+0.06on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Hirnyk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw

83%

Dynamo Kyiv or Hirnyk

79%

Draw or Hirnyk

38%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

37%

Hirnyk wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

86%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

58%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

31%

Hirnyk 1+ goals

59%

Hirnyk 2+ goals

23%

Hirnyk 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

79%

Hirnyk (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.86 · 5 matches

Hirnyk away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.44 + Hirnyk defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.96

Hirnyk attack 0.94 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

62%

level

21%

Hirnyk scores more

17%

Dynamo Kyiv at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

V. Vanat↳ S. Sydorchuk

22'

V. Buyalskyi↳ V. Vanat

35'

T. Korablin← M. Tatarkov

38'

O. Tymchyk

43'

D. Garmash

45+2'

R. Debelko↳ V. Yakimets

58'

I. Dibango

59'

V. Buyalskyi↳ O. Karavaev

64'

K. Vivcharenko← O. Karavaev

65'

K. Parris← V. Kabaev

65'

T. Kędziora← O. Tymchyk

67'

A. Mykytyshyn← M. Zaderaka

67'

D. Shevchenko← Y. Banada

71'

J. Lonwijk← D. Harmash

82'

V. Shepelev← V. Buyalskyi

87'

D. Ustymenko← T. Korablin

88'

S. Sydorchuk

90+2'

K. Vivcharenko

Dynamo

Hirnyk

23

Sarnavsky

25

Lovrić

24

A

50

55

10

44

▼

Banada

94

▼

Zaderaka

8

Kapič

27

⚽

Debelko

11

▼

Tatarkov

35

Neshchere

20

A

▼

Karavaev

24

▼

Tymchyk

4

Popov

25

Zabarnyi

5

A

Sydorchuk

19

▼

Harmash

29

⚽2

▼

Buyalskyi

15

Tsygankov

7

▼

Kabaev

11

⚽A

Vanat

Manager: M. Lucescu

64'▲K. Vivcharenko←▼O. Karavaev

65'▲K. Parris←▼V. Kabaev

65'▲T. Kędziora←▼O. Tymchyk

71'▲J. Lonwijk←▼D. Harmash

82'▲V. Shepelev←▼V. Buyalskyi

Dynamo Kyiv substitutes

2Vivcharenko9Parris94Kędziora22Lonwijk8Shepelev34Syrota1Bushchan21Kravchenko18Andrievskyi41Besedin74Ignatenko30Diallo

Manager: Y. Vernydub

35'▲T. Korablin←▼M. Tatarkov

67'▲A. Mykytyshyn←▼M. Zaderaka

67'▲D. Shevchenko←▼Y. Banada

87'▲D. Ustymenko←▼T. Korablin

Hirnyk substitutes

97Korablin20Mykytyshyn22Shevchenko18Ustymenko7Ponedelnik17Semotyuk13Zotko33Klishchuk39Opanasenko2Ryabov5Stetskov