Dynamo Kyiv 2–0 Dnipro-1: Result & Stats

Dynamo Kyiv

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dnipro-1

S. Sydorchuk 67'

V. Mykolenko 57'

4/10/2021

Premier League · Round 21Dnipro Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv52%

×Draw24%

Dnipro-124%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo KyivExpected goals in this matchDnipro-1

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.06

Dynamo Kyiv

1.67

Dnipro-1

1.06

Dynamo Kyiv creates 58% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 68 away

2.07

creates per match

1.37

0.75

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv

2.07

Dnipro-1

1.37

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv

0.75

Dnipro-1

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Dnipro-1+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Dnipro-1 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw

76%

Dynamo Kyiv or Dnipro-1

76%

Draw or Dnipro-1

48%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

28%

Dnipro-1 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

81%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

50%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

23%

Dnipro-1 1+ goals

65%

Dnipro-1 2+ goals

29%

Dnipro-1 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

68%

Dnipro-1 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.75 · 99 matches

Dnipro-1 away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.28 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.07 + Dnipro-1 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.67

Dnipro-1 attack 1.37 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

52%

level

24%

Dnipro-1 scores more

24%

Dynamo Kyiv at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

35'

40'

44'

47'

57'

V. Mykolenko↳ C. de Pena

59'

V. Shepelev← M. Shaparenko

59'

G. Rodrigues← C. de Pena

61'

Artem Dovbyk

61'

Artem Dovbyk

63'

Artem Besedin

65'

O. Khoblenko← O. Svatok

67'

S. Sydorchuk

72'

V. Supryaha← A. Besedin

73'

A. Batagov← D. Ignatenko

73'

O. Nazarenko← I. Kogut

75'

Oleksandr Karavaev

86'

Sidcley← V. Mykolenko

89'

E. Yarmolyuk← F. Di Franco

89'

Bill← M. Ćuže

90'

Yehor Yarmoliuk

Possession

Shots

Statistics

DynamoDnipro-1

Overview

60%Possession40%

7Total Shots5

8Corners1

16Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots5

7On Target0

0Off Target5

Passing

60%Possession40%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls17

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1