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Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets — Premier League 2026

Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
CANC
14:00
Chornomorets
Chornomorets
5/21/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 30NSK Olimpijs'kyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv59%
×Draw22%
Chornomorets18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Kyiv
1.88
Chornomorets
0.94

Dynamo Kyiv creates 100% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 53 away

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv
2.07
Chornomorets
1.13

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv
0.75
Chornomorets
1.70

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par
Chornomorets+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Chornomorets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw
82%
Dynamo Kyiv or Chornomorets
78%
Draw or Chornomorets
41%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
35%
Chornomorets wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
85%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
56%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
29%
Chornomorets 1+ goals
61%
Chornomorets 2+ goals
24%
Chornomorets 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
76%
Chornomorets (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.75 · 99 matches

Chornomorets away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.70 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.07 + Chornomorets defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.88

Chornomorets attack 1.13 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more
59%
level
22%
Chornomorets scores more
18%

Dynamo Kyiv at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets — Match Preview

Dynamo Kyiv face Chornomorets on May 21, 2022 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dynamo Kyiv host Chornomorets at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.