Dynamo Dresden U19 2–0 Chemnitzer FC U19

Dynamo Dresden U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chemnitzer FC U19

C. Kosak 89', 78'

12/1/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 10AOK Walter-Fritzsch-Akademie Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Dynamo Dresden U1959%

×Draw19%

Chemnitzer FC U1922%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo Dresden U19Expected goals in this matchChemnitzer FC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.47

1.48

Dynamo Dresden U19

2.47

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.48

Dynamo Dresden U19 creates 67% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 51 away

2.19

creates per match

1.41

1.54

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Dynamo Dresden U19

2.19

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.41

allows per match

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.54

Chemnitzer FC U19

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Dresden U19+0.00on par

Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Dresden U19 ↓

Chemnitzer FC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Dynamo Dresden U19 or draw

78%

Dynamo Dresden U19 or Chemnitzer FC U19

81%

Draw or Chemnitzer FC U19

41%

Winning margin

Dynamo Dresden U19 wins by 2+

38%

Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dynamo Dresden U19 1+ goals

91%

Dynamo Dresden U19 2+ goals

70%

Dynamo Dresden U19 3+ goals

44%

Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals

77%

Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals

43%

Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Dresden U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Dresden U19 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.54 · 78 matches

Chemnitzer FC U19 away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.75 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Dresden U19 attack 2.19 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.47

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.41 + Dynamo Dresden U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dynamo Dresden U19 scores more

59%

level

19%

Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more

22%

Dynamo Dresden U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dynamo Dresden U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

C. Kosak← J.Saliger

61'

P. Kämpfer← T. Seidel

69'

L. Becker← J. Löwe

73'

P. Fischer← L. Ehrlich

73'

Y. Luib← Y. Abayomi

78'

C. Kosak

83'

S. Selishta← F. Heidler

87'

R. Frömmel← J. Janz

89'

C. Kosak

90+1'

T. Menzel← J. Hoffmann

Dynamo

Chemnitzer

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: W. Weisse

61'▲C. Kosak←▼J.Saliger

69'▲L. Becker←▼J. Löwe

73'▲P. Fischer←▼L. Ehrlich

90+1'▲T. Menzel←▼J. Hoffmann

Dynamo Dresden U19 substitutes

KosakBeckerFischerMenzelBulangSusoBím

Manager: J. Stephan

61'▲P. Kämpfer←▼T. Seidel

73'▲Y. Luib←▼Y. Abayomi

83'▲S. Selishta←▼F. Heidler

87'▲R. Frömmel←▼J. Janz

Chemnitzer FC U19 substitutes

KämpferLuibSelishtaFrömmelDorfsWolterVerhülsdonk