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Dynamique Djougou vs Dynamo Unacob — Championnat National 2019

Dynamique Djougou
Dynamique Djougou
FT
0 – 1
Dynamo Unacob
Dynamo Unacob
11/26/2022Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 4Stade Atchoukouma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Dynamique Djougou37%
×Draw29%
Dynamo Unacob34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamique Djougou
1.15
Dynamo Unacob
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 87 away

creates per match

Dynamique Djougou
0.78
Dynamo Unacob
0.82

allows per match

Dynamique Djougou
1.37
Dynamo Unacob
1.52

finishing

Dynamique Djougou+0.00on par
Dynamo Unacob+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamique Djougou ↓

Dynamo Unacob →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dynamique Djougou or draw
66%
Dynamique Djougou or Dynamo Unacob
71%
Draw or Dynamo Unacob
63%

Winning margin

Dynamique Djougou wins by 2+
15%
Dynamo Unacob wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dynamique Djougou 1+ goals
68%
Dynamique Djougou 2+ goals
32%
Dynamique Djougou 3+ goals
11%
Dynamo Unacob 1+ goals
66%
Dynamo Unacob 2+ goals
30%
Dynamo Unacob 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dynamique Djougou (draw refunded)
52%
Dynamo Unacob (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamique Djougou at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.37 · 73 matches

Dynamo Unacob away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.52 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamique Djougou attack 0.78 + Dynamo Unacob defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.15

Dynamo Unacob attack 0.82 + Dynamique Djougou defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dynamique Djougou scores more
37%
level
29%
Dynamo Unacob scores more
34%

Dynamique Djougou at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dynamique Djougou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Dynamique Djougou 0–1 Dynamo Unacob

Dynamo Unacob beat Dynamique Djougou 1-0 in Championnat National on November 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Atchoukouma in Djougou.