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Dynamique Djougou vs Béké Bembèrèkè — Championnat National 2019

Dynamique Djougou
Dynamique Djougou
FT
2 – 4
Béké Bembèrèkè
Béké Bembèrèkè
1/19/2022Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 15Stade Municipal de Djougou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Dynamique Djougou31%
×Draw30%
Béké Bembèrèkè39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamique Djougou
0.97
Béké Bembèrèkè
1.14

Béké Bembèrèkè creates 18% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 95 away

creates per match

Dynamique Djougou
0.78
Béké Bembèrèkè
0.91

allows per match

Dynamique Djougou
1.37
Béké Bembèrèkè
1.17

finishing

Dynamique Djougou+0.00on par
Béké Bembèrèkè+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamique Djougou ↓

Béké Bembèrèkè →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dynamique Djougou or draw
61%
Dynamique Djougou or Béké Bembèrèkè
70%
Draw or Béké Bembèrèkè
69%

Winning margin

Dynamique Djougou wins by 2+
11%
Béké Bembèrèkè wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dynamique Djougou 1+ goals
62%
Dynamique Djougou 2+ goals
25%
Dynamique Djougou 3+ goals
7%
Béké Bembèrèkè 1+ goals
68%
Béké Bembèrèkè 2+ goals
32%
Béké Bembèrèkè 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dynamique Djougou (draw refunded)
44%
Béké Bembèrèkè (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamique Djougou at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.37 · 73 matches

Béké Bembèrèkè away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.17 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamique Djougou attack 0.78 + Béké Bembèrèkè defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.97

Béké Bembèrèkè attack 0.91 + Dynamique Djougou defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dynamique Djougou scores more
31%
level
30%
Béké Bembèrèkè scores more
39%

Béké Bembèrèkè at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Béké Bembèrèkè will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dynamique Djougou vs Béké Bembèrèkè

Béké Bembèrèkè beat Dynamique Djougou 4-2 in Championnat National on January 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Djougou in Djougou.