Duros del Balon 0–0 Ind. Juniors: Result & Stats

Duros del Balon

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ind. Juniors

6/24/2019

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 16Estadio Monumental Isidro Romero Carbo (Guayaquil)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Duros del Balon39%

×Draw29%

Ind. Juniors32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Duros del BalonExpected goals in this matchInd. Juniors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.02

Duros del Balon

1.17

Ind. Juniors

1.02

Duros del Balon creates 15% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 124 away

1.18

creates per match

1.01

1.02

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Duros del Balon

1.18

Ind. Juniors

1.01

allows per match

Duros del Balon

1.02

Ind. Juniors

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Duros del Balon+0.00on par

Ind. Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Duros del Balon ↓

Ind. Juniors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Duros del Balon or draw

68%

Duros del Balon or Ind. Juniors

71%

Draw or Ind. Juniors

61%

Winning margin

Duros del Balon wins by 2+

17%

Ind. Juniors wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Duros del Balon 1+ goals

69%

Duros del Balon 2+ goals

33%

Duros del Balon 3+ goals

11%

Ind. Juniors 1+ goals

64%

Ind. Juniors 2+ goals

27%

Ind. Juniors 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Duros del Balon (draw refunded)

55%

Ind. Juniors (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Duros del Balon at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

Ind. Juniors away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.15 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Duros del Balon attack 1.18 + Ind. Juniors defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Ind. Juniors attack 1.01 + Duros del Balon defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Duros del Balon scores more

39%

level

29%

Ind. Juniors scores more

32%

Duros del Balon at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Duros del Balon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff