Durango 3–1 San Ignacio: Result & Stats

Durango

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

San Ignacio

1/14/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 16Estadio Tabira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Durango44%

×Draw28%

San Ignacio28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DurangoExpected goals in this matchSan Ignacio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.96

Durango

1.28

San Ignacio

0.96

Durango creates 33% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 112 away

1.39

creates per match

0.99

0.92

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Durango

1.39

San Ignacio

0.99

allows per match

Durango

0.92

San Ignacio

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Durango+0.00on par

San Ignacio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Durango ↓

San Ignacio →

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Durango or draw

72%

Durango or San Ignacio

72%

Draw or San Ignacio

56%

Winning margin

Durango wins by 2+

20%

San Ignacio wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Durango 1+ goals

72%

Durango 2+ goals

37%

Durango 3+ goals

14%

San Ignacio 1+ goals

62%

San Ignacio 2+ goals

25%

San Ignacio 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Durango (draw refunded)

61%

San Ignacio (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Durango at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.92 · 114 matches

San Ignacio away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Durango attack 1.39 + San Ignacio defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

San Ignacio attack 0.99 + Durango defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Durango scores more

44%

level

28%

San Ignacio scores more

28%

Durango at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Durango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff