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Durango vs Mineros de Zacatecas — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Durango
Durango
Preview
01:00
Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas
10/4/2026Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 11Estadio Francisco Zarco
43%
Durango
model favours
43%25%32%

Both teams score in only 31% of Mineros de Zacatecas’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Durango43%
×Draw25%
Mineros de Zacatecas32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Durango
1.54
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.29

Durango creates 19% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 136 away

creates per match

Durango
1.56
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.24

allows per match

Durango
1.33
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.53

finishing

Durango+0.00on par
Mineros de Zacatecas+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Durango ↓

Mineros de Zacatecas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Durango or draw
68%
Durango or Mineros de Zacatecas
75%
Draw or Mineros de Zacatecas
57%

Winning margin

Durango wins by 2+
21%
Mineros de Zacatecas wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Durango 1+ goals
79%
Durango 2+ goals
45%
Durango 3+ goals
20%
Mineros de Zacatecas 1+ goals
72%
Mineros de Zacatecas 2+ goals
37%
Mineros de Zacatecas 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Durango (draw refunded)
57%
Mineros de Zacatecas (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Durango at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Mineros de Zacatecas away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.53 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Durango attack 1.56 + Mineros de Zacatecas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.54

Mineros de Zacatecas attack 1.24 + Durango defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Durango scores more
43%
level
25%
Mineros de Zacatecas scores more
32%

Durango at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Durango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Durango
LLDWW
Zacatecas
LLLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Durango host Mineros de Zacatecas

October 4, 2026: Durango take on Mineros de Zacatecas in Liga de Expansión MX. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Durango host Mineros de Zacatecas at Estadio Francisco Zarco.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.