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Durango vs Deusto — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Durango
Durango
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deusto
Deusto
9/28/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 7Estadio Tabira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Durango46%
×Draw28%
Deusto26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Durango
1.35
Deusto
0.95

Durango creates 42% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 111 away

creates per match

Durango
1.39
Deusto
0.98

allows per match

Durango
0.92
Deusto
1.31

finishing

Durango+0.00on par
Deusto+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Durango ↓

Deusto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Durango or draw
74%
Durango or Deusto
72%
Draw or Deusto
54%

Winning margin

Durango wins by 2+
22%
Deusto wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Durango 1+ goals
74%
Durango 2+ goals
39%
Durango 3+ goals
15%
Deusto 1+ goals
61%
Deusto 2+ goals
25%
Deusto 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Durango (draw refunded)
64%
Deusto (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Durango at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.92 · 114 matches

Deusto away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.31 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Durango attack 1.39 + Deusto defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.35

Deusto attack 0.98 + Durango defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Durango scores more
46%
level
28%
Deusto scores more
26%

Durango at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Durango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Durango vs Deusto

Durango beat Deusto 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on September 28, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Tabira in Durango.