Dunfermline 3–2 Clyde: Result & Stats | League Cup

Dunfermline

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Clyde

11/14/2020

League Cup · Group Stage - 7East End Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dunfermline67%

×Draw17%

Clyde16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DunfermlineExpected goals in this matchClyde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.55

1.16

Dunfermline

2.55

Clyde

1.16

Dunfermline creates 120% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 14 away

2.82

creates per match

1.50

0.82

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Dunfermline

2.82

Clyde

1.50

allows per match

Dunfermline

0.82

Clyde

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunfermline+0.00on par

Clyde+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunfermline ↓

Clyde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Dunfermline or draw

84%

Dunfermline or Clyde

83%

Draw or Clyde

33%

Winning margin

Dunfermline wins by 2+

45%

Clyde wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dunfermline 1+ goals

92%

Dunfermline 2+ goals

72%

Dunfermline 3+ goals

46%

Clyde 1+ goals

69%

Clyde 2+ goals

32%

Clyde 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dunfermline (draw refunded)

81%

Clyde (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunfermline at home — creates 2.82, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Clyde away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunfermline attack 2.82 + Clyde defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.55

Clyde attack 1.50 + Dunfermline defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Dunfermline scores more

67%

level

17%

Clyde scores more

16%

Dunfermline at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Dunfermline will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff