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Dundela vs Ards — League #407 2026

Dundela
Dundela
Preview
15:00
Ards
Ards
3/6/2027League #407League #407 · Round 30
Big match
47%
Ards
model favours
30%22%47%
1–1
likely score
66%
over 2.5 goals
66%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dundela30%
×Draw22%
Ards47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dundela
1.49
Ards
1.90

Ards creates 28% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dundela
1.58
Ards
1.93

allows per match

Dundela
1.88
Ards
1.40

finishing

Dundela+0.00on par
Ards+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundela ↓

Ards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Dundela or draw
53%
Dundela or Ards
78%
Draw or Ards
70%

Winning margin

Dundela wins by 2+
14%
Ards wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Dundela 1+ goals
77%
Dundela 2+ goals
44%
Dundela 3+ goals
19%
Ards 1+ goals
85%
Ards 2+ goals
56%
Ards 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Dundela (draw refunded)
39%
Ards (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundela at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.88 · 33 matches

Ards away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundela attack 1.58 + Ards defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.49

Ards attack 1.93 + Dundela defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dundela scores more
30%
level
22%
Ards scores more
47%

Ards at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Dundela
LDLDD
Ards
LLDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dundela vs Ards — Match Preview

Dundela face Ards on March 6, 2027 in this League #407 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.