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Dundee vs ST Mirren — Premiership 2018

Dundee
Dundee
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
ST Mirren
ST Mirren
11/11/2023PremiershipPremiership · 1st Phase - 13The Scot Foam Stadium at Dens Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Dundee36%
×Draw28%
ST Mirren36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dundee
1.20
ST Mirren
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Dundee
1.07
ST Mirren
0.82

allows per match

Dundee
1.56
ST Mirren
1.33

finishing

Dundee+0.43scores more
ST Mirren-0.02on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundee ↓

ST Mirren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dundee or draw
64%
Dundee or ST Mirren
72%
Draw or ST Mirren
64%

Winning margin

Dundee wins by 2+
15%
ST Mirren wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dundee 1+ goals
70%
Dundee 2+ goals
34%
Dundee 3+ goals
12%
ST Mirren 1+ goals
70%
ST Mirren 2+ goals
33%
ST Mirren 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dundee (draw refunded)
50%
ST Mirren (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundee at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.56 · 12 matches

ST Mirren away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.33 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundee attack 1.07 + ST Mirren defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

ST Mirren attack 0.82 + Dundee defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Dundee scores more
36%
level
28%
ST Mirren scores more
36%

Dundee at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Dundee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dundee 4 – 0 ST Mirren

Dundee beat ST Mirren 4-0 in Premiership on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at The Scot Foam Stadium at Dens Park in Dundee.