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Dundee vs Rangers — Premiership 2018

Dundee
Dundee
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Rangers
Rangers
11/1/2023PremiershipPremiership · 1st Phase - 11The Scot Foam Stadium at Dens Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Dundee30%
×Draw25%
Rangers45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dundee
1.19
Rangers
1.52

Rangers creates 28% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Dundee
1.07
Rangers
1.48

allows per match

Dundee
1.56
Rangers
1.31

finishing

Dundee+0.43scores more
Rangers+0.67scores more

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundee ↓

Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dundee or draw
55%
Dundee or Rangers
75%
Draw or Rangers
70%

Winning margin

Dundee wins by 2+
12%
Rangers wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Dundee 1+ goals
70%
Dundee 2+ goals
33%
Dundee 3+ goals
12%
Rangers 1+ goals
78%
Rangers 2+ goals
45%
Rangers 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Dundee (draw refunded)
40%
Rangers (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundee at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.56 · 12 matches

Rangers away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundee attack 1.07 + Rangers defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Rangers attack 1.48 + Dundee defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dundee scores more
30%
level
25%
Rangers scores more
45%

Rangers at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dundee 0 – 5 Rangers

Rangers beat Dundee 5-0 in Premiership on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at The Scot Foam Stadium at Dens Park in Dundee.