Dundee 1–0 Motherwell: Result & Stats | League Cup

Dundee

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Motherwell

8/14/2021

League Cup · 2nd RoundKilmac Stadium at Dens Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dundee50%

×Draw23%

Motherwell26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DundeeExpected goals in this matchMotherwell

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.23

Dundee

1.79

Motherwell

1.23

Dundee creates 46% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 14 away

2.80

creates per match

1.71

0.75

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Dundee

2.80

Motherwell

1.71

allows per match

Dundee

0.75

Motherwell

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dundee+0.00on par

Motherwell+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundee ↓

Motherwell →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Dundee or draw

74%

Dundee or Motherwell

77%

Draw or Motherwell

50%

Winning margin

Dundee wins by 2+

28%

Motherwell wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dundee 1+ goals

83%

Dundee 2+ goals

53%

Dundee 3+ goals

26%

Motherwell 1+ goals

71%

Motherwell 2+ goals

35%

Motherwell 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dundee (draw refunded)

66%

Motherwell (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundee at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.75 · 20 matches

Motherwell away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundee attack 2.80 + Motherwell defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.79

Motherwell attack 1.71 + Dundee defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dundee scores more

50%

level

23%

Motherwell scores more

26%

Dundee at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dundee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff