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Dundee vs Heart Of Midlothian — Premiership 2018

Dundee
Dundee
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Heart Of Midlothian
Heart Of Midlothian
2/3/2024PremiershipPremiership · 1st Phase - 24The Scot Foam Stadium at Dens Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Dundee24%
×Draw25%
Heart Of Midlothian50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dundee
1.02
Heart Of Midlothian
1.58

Heart Of Midlothian creates 55% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Dundee
1.07
Heart Of Midlothian
1.60

allows per match

Dundee
1.56
Heart Of Midlothian
0.98

finishing

Dundee+0.43scores more
Heart Of Midlothian-0.20scores less

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundee ↓

Heart Of Midlothian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dundee or draw
50%
Dundee or Heart Of Midlothian
75%
Draw or Heart Of Midlothian
76%

Winning margin

Dundee wins by 2+
9%
Heart Of Midlothian wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Dundee 1+ goals
64%
Dundee 2+ goals
27%
Dundee 3+ goals
8%
Heart Of Midlothian 1+ goals
79%
Heart Of Midlothian 2+ goals
47%
Heart Of Midlothian 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Dundee (draw refunded)
33%
Heart Of Midlothian (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundee at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.56 · 12 matches

Heart Of Midlothian away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.98 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundee attack 1.07 + Heart Of Midlothian defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.02

Heart Of Midlothian attack 1.60 + Dundee defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dundee scores more
24%
level
25%
Heart Of Midlothian scores more
50%

Heart Of Midlothian at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Heart Of Midlothian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dundee 2 – 3 Heart Of Midlothian

Heart Of Midlothian beat Dundee 3-2 in Premiership on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at The Scot Foam Stadium at Dens Park in Dundee.