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Dundee Utd vs ST Johnstone — Premiership 2026

Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
ST Johnstone
ST Johnstone
L. Shankland 53'
L. Appéré 9'
C. Kane 38'
G. Melamed 16'
1/12/2021PremiershipPremiership · 1st Phase - 23Tannadice Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Dundee Utd40%
×Draw27%
ST Johnstone33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dundee Utd
1.33
ST Johnstone
1.18

Dundee Utd creates 13% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 115 away

creates per match

Dundee Utd
1.15
ST Johnstone
0.93

allows per match

Dundee Utd
1.43
ST Johnstone
1.51

finishing

Dundee Utd+0.00on par
ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundee Utd ↓

ST Johnstone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dundee Utd or draw
67%
Dundee Utd or ST Johnstone
73%
Draw or ST Johnstone
60%

Winning margin

Dundee Utd wins by 2+
18%
ST Johnstone wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dundee Utd 1+ goals
74%
Dundee Utd 2+ goals
38%
Dundee Utd 3+ goals
15%
ST Johnstone 1+ goals
69%
ST Johnstone 2+ goals
33%
ST Johnstone 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dundee Utd (draw refunded)
55%
ST Johnstone (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundee Utd at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.43 · 86 matches

ST Johnstone away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.51 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundee Utd attack 1.15 + ST Johnstone defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.33

ST Johnstone attack 0.93 + Dundee Utd defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dundee Utd scores more
40%
level
27%
ST Johnstone scores more
33%

Dundee Utd at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dundee Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
D. WotherspoonST JohnstoneST Johnstone · F
9.3

Match Events

9'
L. Appéré↳ N. Clark
16'
G. Melamed↳ D. Wotherspoon
38'
C. Kane↳ D. Wotherspoon
53'
L. Shankland↳ L. Appéré
55'
Murray Davidson
55'
L. Bolton← L. Neilson
65'
M. McNulty← L. Appéré
67'
Mark Connolly
78'
S. Tanser← C. Booth
78'
S. May← C. Kane
79'
Marc McNulty
87'
C. Conway← D. Wotherspoon
88'
C. Hendry← G. Melamed
89'
Dillon Powers
90'
Shaun Rooney

Possession

50%Dundee

Shots

6Dundee

Pass accuracy

50%Dundee

Statistics

DundeeST
Overview
50%Possession50%
6Total Shots23
3Corners5
18Fouls16
Shots
6Total Shots23
2On Target6
2Off Target10
2Blocked7
2Inside Box15
4Outside Box8
Passing
50%Possession50%
416Total Passes402
242Accurate Passes237
58%Pass Accuracy59%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
18Fouls16
3Yellow Cards2
2Offsides3

Premiership: Dundee Utd 2–2 ST Johnstone

Dundee Utd and ST Johnstone drew 2-2 in Premiership on January 12, 2021.

Goals: L. Appéré (9'), G. Melamed (16'), C. Kane (38'), L. Shankland (53').

Dundee Utd controlled possession (50%) and registered 6 shots to 23.

The match was played at Tannadice Park in Dundee.