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Dundee Utd vs ST Johnstone — Premiership 2026

Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
ST Johnstone
ST Johnstone
N. Clark 6' (pen)
L. Craig 55'
8/1/2020PremiershipPremiership · 1st Phase - 1Tannadice Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Dundee Utd40%
×Draw27%
ST Johnstone33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dundee Utd
1.33
ST Johnstone
1.18

Dundee Utd creates 13% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 115 away

creates per match

Dundee Utd
1.15
ST Johnstone
0.93

allows per match

Dundee Utd
1.43
ST Johnstone
1.51

finishing

Dundee Utd+0.00on par
ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundee Utd ↓

ST Johnstone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dundee Utd or draw
67%
Dundee Utd or ST Johnstone
73%
Draw or ST Johnstone
60%

Winning margin

Dundee Utd wins by 2+
18%
ST Johnstone wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dundee Utd 1+ goals
74%
Dundee Utd 2+ goals
38%
Dundee Utd 3+ goals
15%
ST Johnstone 1+ goals
69%
ST Johnstone 2+ goals
33%
ST Johnstone 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dundee Utd (draw refunded)
55%
ST Johnstone (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundee Utd at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.43 · 86 matches

ST Johnstone away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.51 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundee Utd attack 1.15 + ST Johnstone defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.33

ST Johnstone attack 0.93 + Dundee Utd defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dundee Utd scores more
40%
level
27%
ST Johnstone scores more
33%

Dundee Utd at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dundee Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
L. SmithDundee UtdDundee Utd · M
7.5

Match Events

6'
Liam Craig
6'
N. ClarkPenalty
14'
Michael O'Halloran
43'
Jamie Robson
45'
Michael O'Halloran
45'
Michael O'Halloran
55'
L. Craig
64'
S. May← C. Hendry
65'
L. Bolton← L. Neilson
73'
C. Conway← D. Wotherspoon
74'
S. Tanser← C. Booth
76'
C. Smith← N. Clark
82'
Dan McNamara
90'
L. Chalmers← J. Robson

Possession

61%Dundee

Shots

15Dundee

Pass accuracy

56%Dundee

Statistics

DundeeST
Overview
61%Possession39%
15Total Shots10
3Corners3
11Fouls8
Shots
15Total Shots10
4On Target4
4Off Target4
7Blocked2
8Inside Box5
7Outside Box5
Passing
61%Possession39%
548Total Passes347
415Accurate Passes207
76%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls8
1Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
3Offsides4

Match Recap: Dundee Utd vs ST Johnstone

Dundee Utd and ST Johnstone drew 1-1 in Premiership on August 1, 2020.

Goals: N. Clark (6' pen), L. Craig (55').

Dundee Utd controlled possession (61%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Tannadice Park in Dundee.