Dundee Utd 2–1 Ross County: Result & Stats

Dundee Utd

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ross County

N. Clark 51', 19' (pen)

O. Shaw 81'

10/31/2020

Premiership · 1st Phase - 13Tannadice Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Dundee Utd44%

×Draw26%

Ross County30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dundee UtdExpected goals in this matchRoss County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.17

Dundee Utd

1.46

Ross County

1.17

Dundee Utd creates 25% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 92 away

1.15

creates per match

0.90

1.43

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Dundee Utd

1.15

Ross County

0.90

allows per match

Dundee Utd

1.43

Ross County

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dundee Utd+0.00on par

Ross County+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundee Utd ↓

Ross County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Dundee Utd or draw

70%

Dundee Utd or Ross County

74%

Draw or Ross County

56%

Winning margin

Dundee Utd wins by 2+

21%

Ross County wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dundee Utd 1+ goals

77%

Dundee Utd 2+ goals

43%

Dundee Utd 3+ goals

18%

Ross County 1+ goals

69%

Ross County 2+ goals

33%

Ross County 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dundee Utd (draw refunded)

59%

Ross County (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundee Utd at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.43 · 86 matches

Ross County away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.77 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundee Utd attack 1.15 + Ross County defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ross County attack 0.90 + Dundee Utd defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dundee Utd scores more

44%

level

26%

Ross County scores more

30%

Dundee Utd at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dundee Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

N. Clark

Dundee Utd · F

8.2

Match Events

11'

T. Grivosti← C. Randall

19'

N. ClarkPenalty

51'

52'

58'

66'

66'

M. Gardyne← R. Charles-Cook

72'

A. Spörle← P. Pawlett

74'

O. Shaw← B. McKay

77'

J. Fuchs← I. Harkes

81'

O. Shaw↳ C. Lakin

84'

86'

86'

87'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DundeeRoss

Overview

35%Possession65%

8Total Shots13

2Corners8

11Fouls16

Shots

8Total Shots13

3On Target3

4Off Target4

1Blocked6

6Inside Box6

2Outside Box7

Passing

35%Possession65%

287Total Passes499

152Accurate Passes367

53%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls16

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1