Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dundee Utd vs Motherwell — Premiership 2026

Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Motherwell
Motherwell
D. Levitt 37'
4/30/2022PremiershipPremiership · Championship Round - 2Tannadice Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Dundee Utd38%
×Draw25%
Motherwell37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dundee Utd
1.40
Motherwell
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Dundee Utd
1.40
Motherwell
1.20

allows per match

Dundee Utd
1.58
Motherwell
1.41

finishing

Dundee Utd-0.32scores less
Motherwell+0.18scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundee Utd ↓

Motherwell →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dundee Utd or draw
63%
Dundee Utd or Motherwell
75%
Draw or Motherwell
62%

Winning margin

Dundee Utd wins by 2+
17%
Motherwell wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dundee Utd 1+ goals
75%
Dundee Utd 2+ goals
41%
Dundee Utd 3+ goals
17%
Motherwell 1+ goals
75%
Motherwell 2+ goals
40%
Motherwell 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Dundee Utd (draw refunded)
50%
Motherwell (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundee Utd at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.58 · 13 matches

Motherwell away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.41 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundee Utd attack 1.40 + Motherwell defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Motherwell attack 1.20 + Dundee Utd defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dundee Utd scores more
38%
level
25%
Motherwell scores more
37%

Dundee Utd at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dundee Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
B. SiegristDundee UtdDundee Utd · G
7.9

Match Events

37'
D. Levitt↳ M. McNulty
55'
Sean Goss
56'
Charlie Mulgrew
64'
J. Efford← J. Ojala
74'
I. Niskanen← S. McMann
76'
Bevis Mugabi
80'
N. Clark← M. McNulty
80'
L. Donnelly← K. Woolery
87'
Callum Slattery
88'
Liam Smith
89'
A. Spörle← T. Watt
90'
Adrián Spörle

Possession

59%Dundee

Shots

8Dundee

Pass accuracy

55%Dundee

Statistics

DundeeMotherwell
Overview
59%Possession41%
8Total Shots12
8Corners4
11Fouls19
Shots
8Total Shots12
3On Target2
2Off Target9
3Blocked1
3Inside Box8
5Outside Box4
Passing
59%Possession41%
439Total Passes295
319Accurate Passes176
73%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls19
3Yellow Cards3
4Offsides0

Premiership: Dundee Utd 1–0 Motherwell

Dundee Utd beat Motherwell 1-0 in Premiership on April 30, 2022.

Goals: D. Levitt (37').

Dundee Utd controlled possession (59%) and registered 8 shots to 12.

The match was played at Tannadice Park in Dundee.