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Dundee Utd vs Hibernian — League Cup 2018

Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Hibernian
Hibernianadvanced
9/23/2021League CupLeague Cup · Quarter-finalsTannadice Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Dundee Utd40%
×Draw25%
Hibernian34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dundee Utd
1.45
Hibernian
1.31

Dundee Utd creates 11% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

creates per match

Dundee Utd
1.83
Hibernian
1.79

allows per match

Dundee Utd
0.83
Hibernian
1.07

finishing

Dundee Utd+0.00on par
Hibernian+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundee Utd ↓

Hibernian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dundee Utd or draw
66%
Dundee Utd or Hibernian
75%
Draw or Hibernian
60%

Winning margin

Dundee Utd wins by 2+
19%
Hibernian wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dundee Utd 1+ goals
77%
Dundee Utd 2+ goals
42%
Dundee Utd 3+ goals
18%
Hibernian 1+ goals
73%
Hibernian 2+ goals
38%
Hibernian 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dundee Utd (draw refunded)
54%
Hibernian (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundee Utd at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Hibernian away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundee Utd attack 1.83 + Hibernian defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.45

Hibernian attack 1.79 + Dundee Utd defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dundee Utd scores more
40%
level
25%
Hibernian scores more
34%

Dundee Utd at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dundee Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Dundee Utd 1–3 Hibernian

Hibernian beat Dundee Utd 3-1 in League Cup on September 23, 2021.

The match was played at Tannadice Park in Dundee.