Dundee Utd 1–1 Arbroath: Result & Stats

Dundee Utd

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Arbroath

7/14/2018

League Cup · Group Stage - 2Tannadice Park (Dundee)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dundee Utd59%

×Draw22%

Arbroath20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dundee UtdExpected goals in this matchArbroath

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.04

Dundee Utd

1.97

Arbroath

1.04

Dundee Utd creates 89% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 17 away

2.00

creates per match

1.24

0.85

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Dundee Utd

2.00

Arbroath

1.24

allows per match

Dundee Utd

0.85

Arbroath

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dundee Utd+0.00on par

Arbroath+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundee Utd ↓

Arbroath →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Dundee Utd or draw

80%

Dundee Utd or Arbroath

78%

Draw or Arbroath

41%

Winning margin

Dundee Utd wins by 2+

35%

Arbroath wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Dundee Utd 1+ goals

86%

Dundee Utd 2+ goals

58%

Dundee Utd 3+ goals

31%

Arbroath 1+ goals

65%

Arbroath 2+ goals

28%

Arbroath 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dundee Utd (draw refunded)

75%

Arbroath (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundee Utd at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Arbroath away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundee Utd attack 2.00 + Arbroath defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.97

Arbroath attack 1.24 + Dundee Utd defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dundee Utd scores more

59%

level

22%

Arbroath scores more

20%

Dundee Utd at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dundee Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff