Dumbarton 2–2 Forfar Athletic: Result & Stats

Dumbarton

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Forfar Athletic

2/10/2024

League Two · Round 24The moreroom.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Dumbarton43%

×Draw28%

Forfar Athletic29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DumbartonExpected goals in this matchForfar Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.02

Dumbarton

1.32

Forfar Athletic

1.02

Dumbarton creates 29% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 90 away

1.45

creates per match

1.03

1.02

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Dumbarton

1.45

Forfar Athletic

1.03

allows per match

Dumbarton

1.02

Forfar Athletic

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dumbarton+0.00on par

Forfar Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dumbarton ↓

Forfar Athletic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dumbarton or draw

71%

Dumbarton or Forfar Athletic

72%

Draw or Forfar Athletic

57%

Winning margin

Dumbarton wins by 2+

20%

Forfar Athletic wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dumbarton 1+ goals

73%

Dumbarton 2+ goals

38%

Dumbarton 3+ goals

15%

Forfar Athletic 1+ goals

64%

Forfar Athletic 2+ goals

27%

Forfar Athletic 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dumbarton (draw refunded)

60%

Forfar Athletic (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dumbarton at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.02 · 55 matches

Forfar Athletic away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.19 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dumbarton attack 1.45 + Forfar Athletic defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.32

Forfar Athletic attack 1.03 + Dumbarton defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dumbarton scores more

43%

level

28%

Forfar Athletic scores more

29%

Dumbarton at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dumbarton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff