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Dumbarton vs Cove Rangers — League Cup 2025

Dumbarton
Dumbarton
Preview
14:00
Cove Rangers
Cove Rangers
7/25/2026League CupLeague Cup · Group StageDumbarton Football Stadium
74%
Cove Rangers
model favours
9%17%74%

Cove Rangers score first in only 6% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–2
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dumbarton9%
×Draw17%
Cove Rangers74%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dumbarton
0.60
Cove Rangers
2.20

Cove Rangers creates 267% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Dumbarton
0.20
Cove Rangers
2.00

allows per match

Dumbarton
2.40
Cove Rangers
1.00

finishing

Dumbarton+0.00on par
Cove Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dumbarton ↓

Cove Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–113%
0–215%
0–311%
0–46%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dumbarton or draw
26%
Dumbarton or Cove Rangers
83%
Draw or Cove Rangers
91%

Winning margin

Dumbarton wins by 2+
2%
Cove Rangers wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Dumbarton 1+ goals
45%
Dumbarton 2+ goals
12%
Dumbarton 3+ goals
2%
Cove Rangers 1+ goals
89%
Cove Rangers 2+ goals
64%
Cove Rangers 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Dumbarton (draw refunded)
11%
Cove Rangers (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dumbarton at home — creates 0.20, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Cove Rangers away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dumbarton attack 0.20 + Cove Rangers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.60

Cove Rangers attack 2.00 + Dumbarton defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Dumbarton scores more
9%
level
17%
Cove Rangers scores more
74%

Cove Rangers at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Cove Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Dumbarton score first in only 10% of matches
  • 80% of Dumbarton’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Dumbarton and Cove Rangers have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Dumbarton
LLLLL
Rangers
WLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dumbarton host Cove Rangers

July 25, 2026: Dumbarton take on Cove Rangers in League Cup. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dumbarton host Cove Rangers at Dumbarton Football Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.