Dulwich Hill 1–1 Hakoah Sydney City: Result & Stats

Dulwich Hill

FT

1 – 1

Hakoah Sydney City

2/28/2024

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 3Valentine Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Dulwich Hill34%

×Draw23%

Hakoah Sydney City42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dulwich HillExpected goals in this matchHakoah Sydney City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.73

Dulwich Hill

1.54

Hakoah Sydney City

1.73

Hakoah Sydney City creates 12% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 75 away

1.35

creates per match

1.64

1.82

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Dulwich Hill

1.35

Hakoah Sydney City

1.64

allows per match

Dulwich Hill

1.82

Hakoah Sydney City

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dulwich Hill+0.00on par

Hakoah Sydney City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dulwich Hill ↓

Hakoah Sydney City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Dulwich Hill or draw

58%

Dulwich Hill or Hakoah Sydney City

77%

Draw or Hakoah Sydney City

66%

Winning margin

Dulwich Hill wins by 2+

16%

Hakoah Sydney City wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Dulwich Hill 1+ goals

79%

Dulwich Hill 2+ goals

45%

Dulwich Hill 3+ goals

20%

Hakoah Sydney City 1+ goals

82%

Hakoah Sydney City 2+ goals

52%

Hakoah Sydney City 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Dulwich Hill (draw refunded)

45%

Hakoah Sydney City (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dulwich Hill at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.82 · 57 matches

Hakoah Sydney City away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.72 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dulwich Hill attack 1.35 + Hakoah Sydney City defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.54

Hakoah Sydney City attack 1.64 + Dulwich Hill defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dulwich Hill scores more

34%

level

23%

Hakoah Sydney City scores more

42%

Hakoah Sydney City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hakoah Sydney City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff