Dukla Praha U19 2–0 Slovácko U19: Result & Stats

Dukla Praha U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Slovácko U19

11/10/2023

1. Liga U19 · Round 15Sportareal Satalice UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Dukla Praha U1948%

×Draw22%

Slovácko U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dukla Praha U19Expected goals in this matchSlovácko U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.46

Dukla Praha U19

1.92

Slovácko U19

1.46

Dukla Praha U19 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 79 away

1.95

creates per match

1.30

1.63

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Dukla Praha U19

1.95

Slovácko U19

1.30

allows per match

Dukla Praha U19

1.63

Slovácko U19

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dukla Praha U19+0.00on par

Slovácko U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Praha U19 ↓

Slovácko U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Dukla Praha U19 or draw

71%

Dukla Praha U19 or Slovácko U19

78%

Draw or Slovácko U19

52%

Winning margin

Dukla Praha U19 wins by 2+

27%

Slovácko U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dukla Praha U19 1+ goals

85%

Dukla Praha U19 2+ goals

57%

Dukla Praha U19 3+ goals

30%

Slovácko U19 1+ goals

77%

Slovácko U19 2+ goals

43%

Slovácko U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Dukla Praha U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Slovácko U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Praha U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.63 · 60 matches

Slovácko U19 away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.89 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Praha U19 attack 1.95 + Slovácko U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.92

Slovácko U19 attack 1.30 + Dukla Praha U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dukla Praha U19 scores more

48%

level

22%

Slovácko U19 scores more

29%

Dukla Praha U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dukla Praha U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff