Newcastle Jets vs Adelaide United — A-League 2014
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 7+ matches
Newcastle Jets48%
Adelaide United31%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Newcastle Jets creates 27% more chances
Season form · 8 home / 7 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over70
- Under30
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes69
- No31
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Newcastle Jets ↓
Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Newcastle Jets at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.65 · 8 matches
Adelaide United away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.72 · 7 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Newcastle Jets attack 2.37 + Adelaide United defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 2.04
Adelaide United attack 1.56 + Newcastle Jets defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.60
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Newcastle Jets at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Newcastle Jets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Newcastle Jets host Adelaide United on Friday, 19 December 2014 at 08:40. The match is part of the A-League 2014/2015 season.
A-League: Newcastle Jets 2–1 Adelaide United
Newcastle Jets beat Adelaide United 2-1 in A-League on December 19, 2014.
Goals: S. Neville (49'), C. Goodwin (69'), J. Neumann (81').
The match was played at Hunter Stadium in Newcastle.