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Dugopolje vs HNK Hajduk Split II — First NL 2018

Dugopolje
Dugopolje
FT
0 – 1
HNK Hajduk Split II
HNK Hajduk Split II
8/25/2018First NLFirst NL · Round 1Stadion Hrvatski vitezovi (Dugopolje)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Dugopolje43%
×Draw26%
HNK Hajduk Split II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dugopolje
1.47
HNK Hajduk Split II
1.21

Dugopolje creates 21% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 42 away

creates per match

Dugopolje
1.36
HNK Hajduk Split II
1.36

allows per match

Dugopolje
1.05
HNK Hajduk Split II
1.57

finishing

Dugopolje+0.00on par
HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dugopolje ↓

HNK Hajduk Split II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dugopolje or draw
69%
Dugopolje or HNK Hajduk Split II
74%
Draw or HNK Hajduk Split II
57%

Winning margin

Dugopolje wins by 2+
21%
HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dugopolje 1+ goals
77%
Dugopolje 2+ goals
43%
Dugopolje 3+ goals
18%
HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals
70%
HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals
34%
HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dugopolje (draw refunded)
58%
HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dugopolje at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.05 · 122 matches

HNK Hajduk Split II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.57 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dugopolje attack 1.36 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.47

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 1.36 + Dugopolje defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dugopolje scores more
43%
level
26%
HNK Hajduk Split II scores more
31%

Dugopolje at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dugopolje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First NL: Dugopolje 0–1 HNK Hajduk Split II

HNK Hajduk Split II beat Dugopolje 1-0 in First NL on August 25, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Hrvatski vitezovi (Dugopolje).