Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dudenhofen vs Elversberg II — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Dudenhofen
Dudenhofen
FT
4 – 0
Elversberg II
Elversberg II
10/17/2020Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 8Dudenhofen Rasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Dudenhofen54%
×Draw21%
Elversberg II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dudenhofen
2.13
Elversberg II
1.38

Dudenhofen creates 54% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 26 away

creates per match

Dudenhofen
1.77
Elversberg II
1.08

allows per match

Dudenhofen
1.68
Elversberg II
2.50

finishing

Dudenhofen+0.00on par
Elversberg II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dudenhofen ↓

Elversberg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Dudenhofen or draw
75%
Dudenhofen or Elversberg II
79%
Draw or Elversberg II
46%

Winning margin

Dudenhofen wins by 2+
33%
Elversberg II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dudenhofen 1+ goals
88%
Dudenhofen 2+ goals
63%
Dudenhofen 3+ goals
35%
Elversberg II 1+ goals
75%
Elversberg II 2+ goals
40%
Elversberg II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Dudenhofen (draw refunded)
69%
Elversberg II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dudenhofen at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.68 · 62 matches

Elversberg II away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dudenhofen attack 1.77 + Elversberg II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.13

Elversberg II attack 1.08 + Dudenhofen defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dudenhofen scores more
54%
level
21%
Elversberg II scores more
25%

Dudenhofen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Dudenhofen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dudenhofen vs Elversberg II

Dudenhofen beat Elversberg II 4-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Dudenhofen Rasen in Dudenhofen.