Dubai City 0–5 Dibba Al Hisn: Result & Stats

Dubai City

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 4

Dibba Al Hisn

9/30/2022

Division 1 · Round 4Emirates Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Dubai City21%

×Draw22%

Dibba Al Hisn57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dubai CityExpected goals in this matchDibba Al Hisn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.91

Dubai City

1.05

Dibba Al Hisn

1.91

Dibba Al Hisn creates 82% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 86 away

0.98

creates per match

1.83

1.98

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Dubai City

0.98

Dibba Al Hisn

1.83

allows per match

Dubai City

1.98

Dibba Al Hisn

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dubai City+0.00on par

Dibba Al Hisn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubai City ↓

Dibba Al Hisn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Dubai City or draw

43%

Dubai City or Dibba Al Hisn

78%

Draw or Dibba Al Hisn

79%

Winning margin

Dubai City wins by 2+

7%

Dibba Al Hisn wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Dubai City 1+ goals

65%

Dubai City 2+ goals

28%

Dubai City 3+ goals

9%

Dibba Al Hisn 1+ goals

85%

Dibba Al Hisn 2+ goals

57%

Dibba Al Hisn 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Dubai City (draw refunded)

26%

Dibba Al Hisn (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubai City at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.98 · 60 matches

Dibba Al Hisn away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.12 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubai City attack 0.98 + Dibba Al Hisn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.05

Dibba Al Hisn attack 1.83 + Dubai City defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dubai City scores more

21%

level

22%

Dibba Al Hisn scores more

57%

Dibba Al Hisn at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dibba Al Hisn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff