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Drogheda United vs Derry City — Premier Division 2025

Drogheda United
Drogheda United
Preview
18:45
Derry City
Derry City
10/16/2026Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 34Weavers Park
Big match
38%
Drogheda United
model favours
38%28%34%

Drogheda United score first in only 21% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Drogheda United38%
×Draw28%
Derry City34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drogheda United
1.19
Derry City
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

creates per match

Drogheda United
1.20
Derry City
1.10

allows per match

Drogheda United
1.10
Derry City
1.19

finishing

Drogheda United+0.00on par
Derry City+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drogheda United ↓

Derry City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Drogheda United or draw
66%
Drogheda United or Derry City
72%
Draw or Derry City
62%

Winning margin

Drogheda United wins by 2+
16%
Derry City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Drogheda United 1+ goals
70%
Drogheda United 2+ goals
33%
Drogheda United 3+ goals
12%
Derry City 1+ goals
67%
Derry City 2+ goals
30%
Derry City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Drogheda United (draw refunded)
53%
Derry City (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drogheda United at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Derry City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drogheda United attack 1.20 + Derry City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Derry City attack 1.10 + Drogheda United defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Drogheda United scores more
38%
level
28%
Derry City scores more
34%

Drogheda United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Drogheda United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Derry City have scored in 8 games running
  • Both teams score in 71% of Drogheda United’s matches
  • Both teams score in 71% of Derry City’s matches
  • Even after scoring first, Derry City win only 50%
  • 38% of Drogheda United’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Style contrast — Drogheda United play Direct / counter-attacking, Derry City Defensively solid

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Drogheda United
Direct / counter-attacking
Derry City
Defensively solid
38%PossessionBiggest gap53%
60%Pass accuracy73%
10.3Shots12.3
1.06xG1.29
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Drogheda UnitedDerry City

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

2
Drogheda United
4
Draws
2
Derry City
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 63%
0–21–02–21–11–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
United
WLLD
City
LLLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Drogheda United vs Derry City — Match Preview

Drogheda United face Derry City on October 16, 2026 in this Premier Division fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Drogheda United host Derry City at Weavers Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.