Drogheda United 2–2 Bohemians: Result & Stats

Drogheda United

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Bohemians

C. Byrne 60' (OG)

S. Farrell 9'

J. Bolger 22' (OG)

D. Rooney 18' (pen)

8/2/2024

Premier Division · Round 26Weavers Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Drogheda United37%

×Draw29%

Bohemians35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Drogheda UnitedExpected goals in this matchBohemians

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.11

Drogheda United

1.15

Bohemians

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 127 away

1.24

creates per match

1.11

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Drogheda United

1.24

Bohemians

1.11

allows per match

Drogheda United

1.11

Bohemians

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Drogheda United+0.00on par

Bohemians+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drogheda United ↓

Bohemians →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Drogheda United or draw

65%

Drogheda United or Bohemians

71%

Draw or Bohemians

63%

Winning margin

Drogheda United wins by 2+

15%

Bohemians wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Drogheda United 1+ goals

68%

Drogheda United 2+ goals

32%

Drogheda United 3+ goals

11%

Bohemians 1+ goals

67%

Bohemians 2+ goals

30%

Bohemians 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Drogheda United (draw refunded)

51%

Bohemians (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drogheda United at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 102 matches

Bohemians away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.05 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drogheda United attack 1.24 + Bohemians defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.15

Bohemians attack 1.11 + Drogheda United defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Drogheda United scores more

37%

level

29%

Bohemians scores more

35%

Drogheda United at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Drogheda United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

D. Rooney

Bohemians · F

7.9

Match Events

9'

S. Farrell

18'

Luke Dennison

18'

D. RooneyPenalty

22'

J. BolgerOwn goal

25'

32'

46'

55'

59'

D. Markey← D. Webster

60'

C. ByrneOwn goal

71'

72'

73'

78'

82'

84'

D. Grant← J. Akintunde

85'

J. Clarke← A. McDonnell

90+1'

Leigh Kavanagh

90+1'

Leigh Kavanagh

90+2'

J. Mills← D. Rooney

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DroghedaBohemians

Overview

35%Possession65%

18Total Shots16

5Corners8

8Fouls18

Shots

18Total Shots16

5On Target6

10Off Target5

3Blocked5

13Inside Box8

5Outside Box8

Passing

35%Possession65%

243Total Passes461

144Accurate Passes359

59%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls18

5Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1