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Drogheda United vs Bohemians — Premier Division 2019

Drogheda United
Drogheda United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bohemians
Bohemians
3/4/2024Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 4Weavers Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Drogheda United36%
×Draw29%
Bohemians35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drogheda United
1.14
Bohemians
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 130 away

creates per match

Drogheda United
1.24
Bohemians
1.13

allows per match

Drogheda United
1.11
Bohemians
1.03

finishing

Drogheda United+0.00on par
Bohemians+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drogheda United ↓

Bohemians →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Drogheda United or draw
65%
Drogheda United or Bohemians
71%
Draw or Bohemians
64%

Winning margin

Drogheda United wins by 2+
15%
Bohemians wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Drogheda United 1+ goals
68%
Drogheda United 2+ goals
32%
Drogheda United 3+ goals
11%
Bohemians 1+ goals
67%
Bohemians 2+ goals
31%
Bohemians 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Drogheda United (draw refunded)
51%
Bohemians (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drogheda United at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 102 matches

Bohemians away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.03 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drogheda United attack 1.24 + Bohemians defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.14

Bohemians attack 1.13 + Drogheda United defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Drogheda United scores more
36%
level
29%
Bohemians scores more
35%

Drogheda United at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Drogheda United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Drogheda United vs Bohemians

Drogheda United beat Bohemians 2-1 in Premier Division on March 4, 2024.

The match was played at Weavers Park in Drogheda.