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Dragons vs JSP — Championnat National 2019

Dragons
Dragons
FT
2 – 1
JSP
JSP
1/25/2023Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 17Stade Charles de Gaulle

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Dragons50%
×Draw29%
JSP22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dragons
1.31
JSP
0.76

Dragons creates 72% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 110 away

creates per match

Dragons
1.25
JSP
0.82

allows per match

Dragons
0.70
JSP
1.36

finishing

Dragons+0.00on par
JSP+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dragons ↓

JSP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dragons or draw
78%
Dragons or JSP
71%
Draw or JSP
50%

Winning margin

Dragons wins by 2+
23%
JSP wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dragons 1+ goals
73%
Dragons 2+ goals
38%
Dragons 3+ goals
14%
JSP 1+ goals
53%
JSP 2+ goals
18%
JSP 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dragons (draw refunded)
70%
JSP (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dragons at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.70 · 120 matches

JSP away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.36 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dragons attack 1.25 + JSP defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

JSP attack 0.82 + Dragons defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dragons scores more
50%
level
29%
JSP scores more
22%

Dragons at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dragons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dragons vs JSP

Dragons beat JSP 2-1 in Championnat National on January 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Charles de Gaulle in Porto-Novo.