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Dragón vs Fuerte San Francisco — Primera Division 2019

Dragón
Dragón
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Fuerte San Francisco
Fuerte San Francisco
11/15/2023Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 20Estadio Juan Francisco Barraza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Dragón43%
×Draw27%
Fuerte San Francisco31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dragón
1.40
Fuerte San Francisco
1.14

Dragón creates 23% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 67 away

creates per match

Dragón
1.29
Fuerte San Francisco
0.94

allows per match

Dragón
1.34
Fuerte San Francisco
1.51

finishing

Dragón+0.00on par
Fuerte San Francisco+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dragón ↓

Fuerte San Francisco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dragón or draw
69%
Dragón or Fuerte San Francisco
73%
Draw or Fuerte San Francisco
57%

Winning margin

Dragón wins by 2+
20%
Fuerte San Francisco wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dragón 1+ goals
75%
Dragón 2+ goals
41%
Dragón 3+ goals
17%
Fuerte San Francisco 1+ goals
68%
Fuerte San Francisco 2+ goals
32%
Fuerte San Francisco 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dragón (draw refunded)
58%
Fuerte San Francisco (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dragón at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

Fuerte San Francisco away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.51 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dragón attack 1.29 + Fuerte San Francisco defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.40

Fuerte San Francisco attack 0.94 + Dragón defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dragón scores more
43%
level
27%
Fuerte San Francisco scores more
31%

Dragón at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dragón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Dragón 2–1 Fuerte San Francisco

Dragón beat Fuerte San Francisco 2-1 in Primera Division on November 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Francisco Barraza in San Miguel.