Dragón 0–1 Alianza: Result & Stats

Dragón

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Alianza

2/25/2024

Primera Division · Clausura - 8Estadio Juan Francisco Barraza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Dragón29%

×Draw26%

Alianza44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DragónExpected goals in this matchAlianza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.44

Dragón

1.12

Alianza

1.44

Alianza creates 29% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 154 away

1.29

creates per match

1.53

1.34

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Dragón

1.29

Alianza

1.53

allows per match

Dragón

1.34

Alianza

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dragón+0.00on par

Alianza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dragón ↓

Alianza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dragón or draw

56%

Dragón or Alianza

74%

Draw or Alianza

71%

Winning margin

Dragón wins by 2+

12%

Alianza wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Dragón 1+ goals

67%

Dragón 2+ goals

31%

Dragón 3+ goals

10%

Alianza 1+ goals

76%

Alianza 2+ goals

42%

Alianza 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Dragón (draw refunded)

40%

Alianza (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dragón at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

Alianza away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.95 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dragón attack 1.29 + Alianza defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.12

Alianza attack 1.53 + Dragón defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dragón scores more

29%

level

26%

Alianza scores more

44%

Alianza at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Alianza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff